Direct effects of climate change on productivity of European aquaculture

Aquaculture managers and industry must take into account the impact of climate change on production and environmental quality to ensure that sector growth is sustainable over the coming decades, a key requirement for food security. The potential effects of climate change on aquaculture range from changes to production capacity in existing cultivation areas to changes in the areas themselves, which may become unsuitable for particular species, but also suitable for new species. The prediction of where and how such changes may occur is challenging, not least because the cultivated species may themselves exhibit plasticity, which makes it difficult to forecast the degree to which different locations and culture types may be affected. This work presents a modelling approach used to predict the potential effects of climate change on aquaculture, considering six key finfish and shellfish species of economic importance in Europe: Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas), blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis). The focus is on effects on physiology, growth performance and environmental footprint, and the resultant economic impact at the farm scale. Climate projections for present-day conditions; mid-century (2040–2060) and end-of-century (2080–2100) were extracted from regionally downscaled global climate models and used to force bioenergetic models. For each of those time periods, two different carbon concentration scenarios were considered: a moderate situation (IPCC RCP 4.5) and an extreme situation (IPCC RCP 8.5). Projected temperature changes will have variable effects on growth depending on the species and geographic region. From the case studies analysed, gilthead bream farmed in sea cages in the western Mediterranean was the most vulnerable, whereas offshore-suspended mussel culture in SW Portugal was least affected. Most of the marine finfish simulated were projected to have decreased feeding efficiency in both mid-century and end-of-century climate scenarios. Bivalve shellfish showed a decreasing trend with respect to most productivity parameters as climate change progresses, under both emission scenarios. As a general trend across species and regions, economic uncertainty is expected to increase under all future projections

Buoyancy-stirring interactions in a subtropical embayment: a synthesis of measurements and model simulations in Maputo Bay, Mozambique

Maputo Bay, on the coast of Mozambique, is a tidally energetic, subtropical embayment in a region subjected to strong seasonal rainfall. Data from moored current meters, tide gauges and monthly bay-wide surveys were used to characterise the evolution of the density structure on seasonal, fortnightly and semi-diurnal time-scales and its relation to tidal forcing. The bay is subjected to large seasonal variations in freshwater input (10–103 m3 s–1) and pronounced fortnightly variations in tidal amplitude with a spring:neap tide ratio varying between 3.6 and 9.0 with a corresponding variation in tidal stirring power input (10–3–1 W m–3). During the dry season, the water column was continuously fully mixed with weak horizontal density gradients. In contrast, during the wet season, freshwater buoyancy induced marked horizontal salinity gradients and stratification, which was pronounced around the time of neap tides. This stratification was largely eroded at spring tides but semi-diurnal, periodic stratification was still evident. A potential energy anomaly model was used to demonstrate that this periodic component of stratification was largely a result of tidal straining acting locally, with an additional contribution of stratified water advected from outside the bay during the last stages of the flood tide. Simulations using the Delft3D-Flow hydrodynamic model gave a realistic account of the tidal regime in the bay, but achieved only qualitative success in the hindcasting of the changes in water column structure and horizontal exchange. The model indicated a wet season salinity deficit of 2–3 times that of the observed values and wet season temperatures were ~2–3 °C higher than those observed. The model also underestimated the intensity of stratification in the wet season. These shortcomings all suggest an overestimate of vertical mixing by the model’s turbulence closure scheme.Keywords: buoyancy; density gradient; Maputo Bay; seasonal variation; subtropical zone; tidal mixingAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2010, 32(1): 95–10

Water exchanges between a multi-inlet lagoon and the ocean: the role of forcing mechanisms

Understanding the influence of the main drivers controlling the circulation and the transport in coastal lagoons is a necessary step towards the description of the dynamics of their ecosystems. Thus, the influence of the main physical drivers on the water exchanges in a multi-inlet barrier island (western sector of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, Portugal) was investigated. Several scenarios of tide, wind, bathymetry and point source discharges were simulated using a three-dimensional circulation model and a particle-tracking model. The circulation is adequately reproduced by the hydrodynamic model, with root mean square errors of about 5-8 cm for the water levels and 5-10 cm/s for the cross-sectional averaged velocities in the western inlets and main channels. Wind has a negligible effect on the modelled water levels and cross-sectional velocities, with differences smaller than 1 % between the simulations with and without wind. However, results show that wind influences significantly the transport by affecting the residual circulation, with distinct effects depending on the wind direction. Upwelling favourable winds (with west component) increase the landward transport through the Faro-Olho inlet and promote a larger dispersion of the water-borne material inside the lagoon. The residual circulation between the three inlets of the western sector of the lagoon is also significantly affected by the bathymetry. Results show a decrease of about 50 % of the tidal prism of the Anco inlet between 2002 and 2011, which reduces its capacity to export waterborne material to the adjacent coastal area and increases the residence times in some areas of the lagoon, with potentially adverse effects on the ecosystems' health. The dispersion of potential contaminants from point sources inside the lagoon to the coastal area depends on the combined effect of the tidal phase and amplitude and the location of the source. Mean residence times for the discharges from the wastewater treatment plants of the western sector ranged from 7 to 18 days. These findings improve the understanding of the influence of the physical forcings in the circulation and transport dynamics of multi-inlet coastal systems